With Nokia’s hold on the smartphone market worldwide at around 50%, Windows Mobile taking a big chunk of the market and RIM’s BlackBerry and Apple’s iPhone capturing the rest of the market, is Google’s Android platform going to be a disruptor or just another player? I have been thinking about this since Google’s announcement of the Android platform but wasn’t sure how to answer this until I saw this, an official demonstration of Android. It really makes analysis easier when you see something in action instead of trying to visualize an abstract description in your head. After watching the demonstration, I’m convinced that Android has the potential to be a disruptor, however there are hurdles involved in that there are huge incumbents that can throw money at development and to a large extent replicate the experience. The hope would be that with the release of the Android SDK, the development community, as a collective force, can create innovative software. To provide incentive, Google has set aside $10 Million in prizes for the best applications developed.
Google will likely bid on the upcoming 700Mhz spectrum auction and if they end up acquiring it with or without a carrier partner, it is a huge step for the search engine. What started as an extremely sophisticated search algorithm has morphed into a company with the 4th largest market capitalization in the US and the backbone of the internet. It is without a doubt one of the most innovative companies of this generation. The purchase of spectrum and the release of Android signifies what pundits all over the world have been talking about for years, that the internet will move to the mobile wireless arena and its growth will be exponential. Just recently there was a report published saying that global handheld sales outpaced that of desktop PCs. Convergence of the internet, wireless service and computers will continue and only those companies that can re-invent itself will be left when the dust settles.
Android, internet, spectrum and the organization of the world’s information are the ingredients for Google’s strategy in these rapidly converging industries. I think in the longterm, Android will end up becoming a huge threat to the Windows Mobile platform and will overtake them. As for the BlackBerry software, there is nothing, that the Apple or even Google (with current information) can do to penetrate the enterprise market that RIM holds so dear (as for the consumer segment, the jury is still out on that). The main difference between RIM’s strategy and everyone else’s is that they provide end-to-end solutions for email starting with the email server, network infrastructure to hardware to the OS. This is the crux of RIM’s strategy, success and survival from the enterprise perspective. As long as they can keep that barrier to entry by way of defending their IP, they will be good for many more years to come in the enterprise space.
What makes Google so dangerous to the traditional carriers, handset manufacturers and software developers is that they aren’t jumping into wireless to make money in the same way that everyone else has been, but to provide yet again another platform to deliver its services like Gmail, Google Search and Google Checkout, which all of course serve as platforms to deliver targeted ads. The more accessible these services become, the more sticky or convenient it is for people. It will be through the way Google operates itself in wireless, rather than through the actual product they offer that it will disrupt wireless.
Whatever the outcome of the spectrum auction or the adoption of Android, I would love to see Google, RIM and Apple battle it out for the consumer space. Competition from these guys will only benefit the little people like myself.
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